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Everything you need to understand how the map works, what the model calculates, and where the numbers come from.

How to Use the Map

Navigating the Map

The map starts zoomed out to a national view. Pan and zoom to any US city or neighborhood. At zoom level 15 or higher (roughly street level), individual property parcels appear as colored polygons. Each parcel is shaded based on how favorable renting versus buying is at current market prices:

  • Orange / red — Renting is likely the better financial outcome at the current price-to-rent ratio.
  • Blue — Buying is likely the better financial outcome (the property is relatively affordable to own versus rent).
  • White outline — Data is loading or not yet available. Click the parcel to trigger a fresh lookup.

At lower zoom levels, clicking on a city or neighborhood displays aggregated median value and rent data for that area, along with a city-level Gross Rental Yield.

Clicking a Property

Click any parcel to load a RentCast-sourced estimate of its market value and monthly rental rate. The sidebar will display:

  • Estimated value — The automated valuation (AVM) for the property.
  • Estimated rent — The estimated fair market monthly rent.
  • Gross Rental Yield — Annual rent divided by property value, expressed as a percentage. Higher yields generally favor renting (the rent premium over carrying costs is lower). Lower yields favor buying.
  • 30-Year Wealth Projection — A chart comparing cumulative net worth for a buyer versus a renter over 30 years, based on the current slider settings.

Searching for an Address

Use the search bar at the top to jump directly to a street address, city, or neighborhood. Entering a specific address will automatically select the nearest matching parcel and load its data. Entering a city name will display the city boundary and aggregated median statistics.

Adjusting Assumptions with Sliders

Every real estate decision depends on personal circumstances. The sidebar provides sliders to customize the key variables in the model:

SliderWhat it controls
Mortgage rateYour expected 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate.
Home appreciationAnnual rate at which the property grows in value.
Renter invests savingsThe fraction of their monthly cost advantage the renter actually invests (vs. spends). Most people save less than 100%.
Current rentMonthly rent for a comparable home. Auto-filled from market data; adjust if the estimate is off.
Down paymentUpfront cash percentage. Higher down payments reduce monthly mortgage but reduce the renter’s initial investable capital.
Annual rent growthHow much rents increase per year. As rent rises, the renter’s cost advantage shrinks.
Property tax rateAnnual property tax as a % of home value. Highly location-specific — check your county assessor.
Maintenance rateEstimated annual maintenance and repairs as a % of home value.
Stock market returnExpected annual return on the renter’s invested down payment and monthly savings.

Overriding Estimated Values

The “Estimated value” and “Estimated rent” figures from RentCast may not match what you actually know about a property. You can override them directly in the sidebar: hover over the figure and click the pencil icon (or tap on mobile), type your own number, and press Enter or click away. The chart and all calculations will update in real time. Your overrides are saved locally and will persist across browser sessions. To revert to the API estimate, click the reset () icon.

The Math Behind the Break-Even

The 30-year wealth projection compares two hypothetical households — one that buys the selected property and one that rents a comparable home — and tracks their cumulative net worth year by year. Both households start with the same cash on hand (the buyer’s down payment).

The Buyer’s Net Worth

Each year, the buyer’s net worth grows from two sources:

  • Home equity — The property appreciates at the configured rate, and the mortgage balance decreases as principal is paid down. Equity = current home value − remaining mortgage balance.

Offset by unrecoverable costs paid each year:

  • Mortgage interest — The interest portion of each monthly payment builds no equity.
  • Property taxes — Paid to the government; not returned at sale.
  • Maintenance & repairs — Estimated as a percentage of home value annually.
  • Home insurance — Annual premium.
  • Closing costs — Rolled into Year 1 and assumed to be a one-time cost.

The Renter’s Net Worth

The renter pays monthly rent (escalating each year) and invests the difference between their total monthly outlay and the buyer’s total monthly outlay:

  • Down payment invested — The cash the renter did not spend on a down payment is invested in a diversified index fund from day one.
  • Monthly savings invested — Whenever renting is cheaper than buying in a given month, the renter invests a configurable fraction of that difference (the “Renter invests savings” slider). When buying becomes cheaper (in later years as the mortgage is paid down), no additional savings are assumed.
  • Portfolio growth — The invested portfolio compounds at the configured stock market return rate.

The Break-Even Year

The break-even point is the first year in which the buyer’s net worth exceeds the renter’s. Before that year, renting builds more wealth; after it, buying does. Some combinations of assumptions produce no break-even within 30 years — meaning renting wins under those parameters for the full horizon modeled.

Gross Rental Yield

In addition to the full 30-year model, the sidebar shows a quick Gross Rental Yield figure, calculated as:

Gross Rental Yield = (Annual Rent / Property Value) × 100

This is a simplified metric used by real estate investors as a quick first screen. As a rough guide for US residential real estate:

  • Above 7–8% — Strongly rent-favored (or attractive for landlords)
  • 5–7% — Borderline; the full model with local assumptions matters
  • Below 4–5% — Buying may be favorable under typical assumptions

Note: Gross Rental Yield ignores financing costs, taxes, and maintenance. It is a directional signal, not a complete analysis. Always use the 30-year projection for a more complete picture.

Model Limitations

This model is intentionally simplified for accessibility. It does not account for:

  • HOA fees or special assessments
  • Flood, earthquake, or specialty insurance
  • Mortgage interest or property tax deductions (tax benefit of homeownership)
  • Capital gains tax exclusion on home sale ($250k/$500k)
  • Refinancing or early payoff scenarios
  • Variable rent increases (assumes a constant annual growth rate)
  • Regional variation in appreciation or rent growth within a metro area

Data Sources

The Application draws on several data sources, each with its own update cadence and methodology. Because automated estimates can differ significantly from actual market conditions, user-entered overrides are always encouraged when you have better local knowledge.

RentCast

Property value and rental estimates are sourced from the RentCast API. RentCast uses automated valuation models (AVMs) trained on MLS transactions, public records, and local comparables. Estimates are typically updated monthly. They represent a best-guess median estimate and may be off by 10–20% in markets with thin transaction volume or unusual property characteristics.

OpenStreetMap & Overpass API

Building footprints and property parcel outlines are sourced from the OpenStreetMap Overpass API. OSM data is community-maintained and coverage quality varies by region. Urban areas generally have excellent building coverage; rural areas may be sparse.

Nominatim (OpenStreetMap Geocoder)

Address search and reverse geocoding (converting coordinates to city names) is powered by Nominatim, the official OpenStreetMap geocoding service. Search results are best for well-known addresses in the United States.

Supabase (Cached Property Data)

To minimize API costs and improve performance, property estimates retrieved via RentCast are cached in a PostgreSQL database hosted by Supabase. Cached data includes the estimated value, estimated rent, and a derived rent-vs-buy score. The colored shading you see on unclicked parcels reflects these cached scores, not live API calls. Click a parcel to trigger a fresh lookup if needed.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is almost everything showing “rent is better”?

In many US metro areas, especially on the coasts, home prices have risen much faster than rents over the past decade, pushing Gross Rental Yields below 4%. At a 7% assumed stock market return (the model default), the opportunity cost of tying up a large down payment is high. Try lowering the stock return to 4–5% or increasing home appreciation to 5%+ to see conditions under which buying is more competitive.

The estimated value looks wrong. What do I do?

AVM estimates can be significantly off for unique or recently renovated properties. Click the pencil icon next to “Estimated value” and enter the actual listing price or your own estimate. The model will update instantly and your override will be saved locally for next time.

Does the model account for the mortgage interest deduction?

No. The current model does not apply the mortgage interest deduction or any other tax benefit. For high-income buyers who itemize deductions, this will understate the financial benefit of buying. Adding a property tax deduction slider is on the roadmap.

Can I share my analysis with someone else?

Yes. Use the “Share” button in the top-right of the sidebar to copy a permalink that encodes the selected property’s coordinates and your current slider values (mortgage rate, stock return, current rent). The recipient will see the exact same analysis when they open the link.

Is this tool available for properties outside the US?

Currently, the rental and value estimates are only available for US residential properties via RentCast. The map itself (OpenStreetMap tiles and building footprints) covers the entire world, but the sidebar data will not populate for non-US coordinates.